According to the latest sales forecast made by IHS Automotive, there will be 21 million autonomous vehicles in the world by 2035.
The automakers and tech companies are more determined than ever to enter into the self-driving era as soon as possible. Lately, there have been many initiatives announced into this direction, from massive R&D investments to various collaborations between OEMs and ridesharing companies. Based on this tremendous push, IHS Automotive has adjusted upwards its previous estimates around the autonomous trend, for now to project global sales of nearly 600,000 driverless vehicles in 2025, jumping to 21 million units by 2035.
“Our new forecast reflects a 43 percent compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035 – a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets,” Egil Juliussen, director of research at IHS Automotive, said.
The United States is said to first lead the movement, as the market is expected to see the earliest deployment of “independent” vehicles as it works through challenges posed by regulation, liability and consumer reluctance. It will slowly start with several thousand autonomous cars in 2020, which will grow to nearly 4.5 million vehicles by 2035, according to IHS Automotive forecasts.
However, despite a later start, the analysts see China becoming the single largest market for the technology, with more than 5.7 million vehicles to be sold there in 2035 fitted with some form of self-driving systems.
IHS says that major markets in Western Europe will maintain industry technology leadership through the premium segment, with a little more than 3 million autonomous vehicles expected to be deployed by 2035 and another 1.2 million in Eastern Europe, while Japan and South Korea to reach 1.2 million cars equipped with some level of autonomous driving capability.