New car sales in the United States, the world’s second largest auto market, could fall as much as 40 percent in the next quarter of a century due to the appearance of autonomous cars, seriously hurting mass-market manufacturers such as General Motors or Toyota.

The piece of future market prediction comes courtesy of an analyst of Barclays Plc, Brian Johnson, who predicts vehicle ownership would decline because of shared driverless vehicles – families that today own more than one car could move to joint-usage of just one self-driving vehicle. He also believes that while vehicle ownership is set to decline by almost half, the driverless vehicles will travel more than twice the current average mileage of autos as they fulfill the transport duties for all members of the family. Volume automakers “would need to shrink dramatically to survive,” commented Johnson. “GM and Ford would need to reduce North American production by up to 68 percent and 58 percent, respectively.” Self-driving cars are an emerging automotive technology and segment that is frequently referenced today, as global powerhouses are hard at work to implement the technology and even technology giants such as Google are implicated in the field.

The sector of autonomous technology is expected to account for $42 billion by 2025 and driverless cars might capture 25 percent of the global auto market share by 2035, forecasts the Boston Consulting Group, with semi-autonomous models already widely available by 2017, read a report of the firm. Johnson estimates that when the vast majority of cars are autonomous, annual sales in the US would reach just 9.5 million units, while the total of cars on the country’s roads would dip below 100 million.

Via Automotive News


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