According to a recent forecast report coming from AlixPartners, the growth of auto demand worldwide is going to decrease to 2.6 percent per year across the upcoming seven years, with US sales probably peaking in 2016.
AlixPartners, a consulting firm that has extensive ties with global automakers, projects annual global vehicle sales would soar to 103.2 million vehicles in 2021, after 87.9 million units are expected to be delivered this year. The crucial US market could reach a cyclical through at around 15 million units annually in 2019, with interest rates surging and used vehicle prices going down, says Mark Wakefield, head of AlixPartners’ automotive practice in the Americas region. The consulting firm also sees US new vehicle sales at 17.1 million cars and light trucks this year and soaring to 17.4 million next year. For the upcoming seven years the annual rate of increase is projected to go down from the 3.1 percent seen for the 2007 to 2014 period – as the period had recovering demand from the financial crisis across many regions.
China, the world’s largest single auto market, is also expected to rise at around 5.2 percent through 2018, dropping massively from the 16.6 percent annual rate seen in the years between 2005 and 2014. US sales could remain above 17 million units per year through 2017 if the low oil prices remain the norm – and automakers could face numerous issues as consumers will need nine to 13 years to repay the additional costs – projected at $3,500 a vehicle – triggered by the tougher US fuel economy standards.