Edmunds.com Forecasts November Auto Sales: Seasonal Slowdown Sets In image

This month’s new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 710,000 units, a 4.5 percent decrease from November 2008 and a 15.0 percent decrease from October 2009, according to Edmunds.com

Edmunds.com analysts predict that November’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 10.34 million, down from 10.43 in October 2009.

November 2009 has 23 selling days, two less than last November 2008. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 3.8 percent from November 2008. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)

Change from November 2008
(Adjusted for less selling days)
Change from November 2008
(Unadjusted for less selling days)
Change from October 2009
(Unadjusted for more selling days)
Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) -29.4 % -35.0 % -15.8 %
Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) 8.4 % -0.3 % -8.8 %
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) 7.3 % -1.3 % -14.2 %
Honda (Acura, Honda) -1.2 % -9.1 % -18.9 %
Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) 36.9 % 25.9 % -19.0 %
Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) 7.9 % -0.7 % -23.1 %
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 3.9 % -4.4 % -18.2 %
Industry Total 3.8 % -4.5 % -15.0 %

“November is living up to its reputation for being one of the worst months of the year for car sales, so everyone is hopeful that Thanksgiving weekend will boost the numbers,” commented Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “But automakers have already launched holiday season incentives in order to pick up the pace, and that sense of desperation suggests that bigger discounts – but smaller selection – may be available for those who wait to buy.”

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 46.4 percent in November 2009, down from 48.6 percent in November 2008 and up from 45.1 percent in October 2009.