Worldwide new vehicle sales in 2012 are expected to rise 6.7 percent over 2011 volumes to 77.7 million vehicles, according to R.L. Polk & Co. – a premier provider of automotive information and marketing solutions.
China is expected to make the largest contribution to global sales growth for new vehicles, according to Polk, with an anticipated 16 percent increase over 2011.
“Growth in China will pick up again in 2012,” Anthony Pratt, Polk’s director of forecasting for the Americas, said in a telephone interview with Bloomberg.
“The growth there will be more a function of natural demand than stimulus, and the expansion in the second-and third-tier cities is a trend that’s going to continue to develop.”
In Europe, the situation will remain unchanged, where is expected to be sold 19 million vehicles, as austerity measures and sovereign-debt concerns prevent governments from offering scrappage programs and other incentives for purchasers.
The U.S. won’t surpass its pre-recession sales level of 16 million vehicles until 2015, Polk said.
Luxury cars will remain the fastest-growing part of the U.S. market, with more than 14 percent growth, according to the forecast.
Growth in the other BRIC countries will outpace many mature markets over the next few years.
As an example, Polk expects Brazilto surpass Germany as 2011 sales results are finalized, and new vehicle sales in India are expected to surpass those sold inGermany in 2014. Sales growth in Russia will likely be flat in 2012, however, Polk anticipates sales in Russia to outpace Germanyby the year 2015.