Some researches are starting to contradict the global automakers, who seem keen on ever lasting growing deliveries. According to analysts, we could be very well coming close to the so-called “Peak Car” threshold.
The “Peak Car” is a point considered by many the one when the annual global sales growth will come to an end, signaling a change in habits – as more and more cities become megacities, these megalopolis types face the danger of pollution and gridlock. So, several auto-industry analysts say that we are approaching the “Peak Car” point somewhere in the next decade or so.
“The key question is: Do you sell cars or do you sell mobility?” said Tim Ryan, New York-based vice chairman of markets and strategy for consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. “If you ignore these megatrends, you run the risk of becoming irrelevant.”
Researcher IHS Automotive, for example, sees the global annual sales topping out at 100 million units around that time – in a stark contrast to what automakers want to reach, as the same IHS says they are preparing to reach an output of 120 million vehicles per year.
There are of course arguments pro and contra the sales topping out – for the detractors, pollution and traffic problems are among the more prominent, while advocates of the growth point out to China and the countries that were not even considered emerging markets once.