The last six years were on a constant upward trend for the automotive industry in the US, thus more and more analysts forecast a record year in sales.
Lately, increasingly more analysts have predicted a record year in cars sales for the US market and have revised their estimates upwards. This is mainly due to the significant growth reported for October sales. For 2015 to become the top-year, the last two months have to be as strong as the last one. “We expect the current year to exceed the record volume of 17.35M seen in 2000,” writes Efraim Levy, a senior automotive analyst with S&P Capital IQ. “The 2015 tally represents a rare sixth consecutive annual increase, coming off the dramatic low of 2009.” Levy has raised his forecast for the full year to 17.4 million from an early projection of 17.1 million, which would mean a 5.9 percent increase from last year. An analyst with data tracking firm TrueCar believes that “It will be a photo-finish to see if 2015 beats the previous record set during the first year of the new millennium”. And if the record is not topped, it will “definitely be the second-highest year.”
One of the main reasons for the US automotive market boost has been the low fuel prices that drove the consumers towards buying more SUVs and high-priced luxury cars, which translated into big earnings for the automakers. After the Big Crisis, the automotive industry in the country is now on a continuous ascending trend due to “increased consumer confidence, low unemployment, low gas prices, low interest rates and increasing incentives,” according to Stacey Boyle form TrueCar.
Furthermore, the analysts feel this high pace will be maintained through 2016, as the average age of vehicles on the road is around 11 years old and the owners will have to replace their cars with new ones. S&P forecasts demand will reach 17.6 million cars in 2016.
Via The Detroit Bureau