A new report on the future status of fully electric vehicle sales concocted by IHS and Morgan Stanley Research is putting Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc in a very favorable position, allegedly commanding half of the EV market by 2020.
The extremely strong volume growth at Tesla will be headlined by the newly introduced Model 3 sedan, but also the upcoming Model Y sport utility vehicle – as the mainstream pair will be highly enticing to those not affording to buy a Model s or X. The IHS / Morgan Stanley report is actually more conservative than Tesla’s own prediction of reaching half a million-unit sales for the period after adding the Model Y, but still puts Tesla basically in charge of global electric car sales – at the expense of current leaders such as the Leaf (global) or Renault Zoe (Europe).
There are some considerations though – the Model Y hasn’t even been presented yet, so it’s unknown if it will garner a positive reaction from the public, and also Tesla needs new factories, because the predicted volume can’t be handled by the Fremont and Gigafactory plants alone. Another question is how manufacturers will react, considering many traditional brands are gunning for volume sales around that period as well – while the Chinese might also have huge impact on the overall market evolution given their huge EV targets.
PS: In related news, we can tell you Tesla is doing a good deed for folks in Florida – all owners of Model S and X owners potentially affected by hurricane Irma are getting an OTA (over-the-air) update extending the battery from 60 kWh to 75 kWh free of charge for a limited period of time.