Boston Consulting Group said in a new study they consider emerging markets beyond Brazil, India, Russia and China to be the “last frontier” for vehicle-sales growth through 2020.
Sales in these so-called Beyond BRIC emerging markets will account for one-fifth of the global deliveries through 2020 and will increase faster than in the traditional markets, such as US, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, according to the research.
“Brazil, Russia, India and China have generated substantial growth opportunities in the last decade and will certainly be vitally important over the coming decade,” according to the report. “But we believe that concentrating on BRIC markets alone will be insufficient to ensure longer-term success.”
Parts of Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and northern Africa are seen as the last “growth opportunity in a world in which established markets are largely characterized by stagnation or low growth and the key stakes have already been distributed in the BRIC markets,” Boston Consulting added.
The southeast Asia countries, which include Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, are seen to grow to new vehicle sales of 4.6 million by 2020, much more than Russia, the report said. Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, could also have 5.8 million sales in 2020, more than the 5.2 million forecast for Brazil. Latin American countries, including Argentina, Chile and Colombia, may be soon worth 2.9 million, comparing them to the 3.6-million German market.