Researcher IHS Automotive projected that UK’s decision to exit the European Union would affect the global sales by 2.8 million units in the next couple of years.
Even if there is still a long way until the UK will officially leave the European Union, automotive analysts have started to make predictions on the severity of the impact of such a move on the industry. Following the Brexit vote, IHS Automotive has revised downwards its initial annual forecast for the UK market, for now to anticipate a gain of just 1 percent year to around 3.045 million units, versus the 3.2 percent growth that has been previously projected. Furthermore, the declines are seen to be steeper in the following years.
IHS said registrations of light vehicles would fall by 9.1 percent to 2.758 million next year, rather than a 3.5 percent decline, while for 2018 sales are now expected to hit 2.71 million units versus the 2.94 million units for the pre-referendum forecast. “The UK is, unsurprisingly, anticipated to bear the brunt of the impact,” the report mentioned.
As for the Western European markets, the impact is said to cut the sales by around 110,000 units in 2016, to 15.64 million, and to dip another 1.2 percent in the next year, for 2018 to stay flat.
On a global basis, deliveries may rise to 89.82 million units, an increase of 2.0 percent, 200,000 below the initial 90.02 million unit forecast. The researcher also reduced its estimates for 2017 and 2018 by about 1.25 million and 1.38 million, respectively.