Tesla unlikely to hit its 50,000 plan in annual sales image

For Tesla to reach its forecasted plan of over 50,000 cars delivered in 2015, it really has to speed up the production and double its sales until the end of the year.

Tesla’s plan for the final quarter of the year is to build 15,000 to 17,000 vehicles, and deliver 17,000 to 19,000 cars, which will result in 50,000 to 52,000 total units for 2015. But this will prove to be a hard task for the company, as it has to sell more than double the units during November and December than it has delivered so for as monthly average. In the third quarter, Tesla exceeded its plan by producing 13,091 vehicles, including the first Model X vehicles, despite a one-week shut down to expand manufacturing capacity.

During the quarter, the automaker delivered 11,603 vehicles, slightly above the number estimated in the October announcement, with a total of 33,174 reported sales from the beginning of the year. That means a monthly average of around 3,700 cars, while in October the sales were at an estimated 3,500 worldwide, not close to one-third the remaining balance needed for 52,000 or even 50,000. So, for Tesla to hit the 50,000-52,000 cars projected mark in 2015 it has to sell double the amount in the remaining two months, a very hard task to achieve for the company.

Tesla is already down from the optimistic prediction of 55,000 cars at the beginning of the 2015, and with a Q3 loss non-generally accepted accounting principles of 75 million dollars, or a loss of 0.58 dollars per basic share based on 129 million basic shares, while the Q3 GAAP net loss was 230 million dollars or a loss of 1.78 dollars per basic share.