Analysts expect oil production in the US to overtake Saudi Arabia, becoming the world’s biggest producer in the next 5 years.
“We were wrong that it was not possible for the U.S. [production] to swing back again. But we don’t know how high the swing will be, ” said Kjell Aleklett, president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil.
One of the advantages the US have is that is success is not duplicated in other countries. For example in Europe the best shale is under Paris, which means that the Eiffel Tower should be transformed into a production platform. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that by 2035 imports of liquid fuels, crude oil, other petroleum and natural gas will total 24 quadrillion BTUs annually, three times more the level of exports.
Some analysts believe that this surge in the US production is shallow, and that soon the oil price will boost again and industrial economy will fall again.
“On the massive balance of probabilities, not withstanding the U.S. phenomenon, there’s going to be a descent of global production and much higher prices, by 2015 at the latest,” said Jeremy Leggett, chairman of Solarcentury and writer about energy issues.