IEA Forecasts Global Vehicle Fleet to Double by 2035
The International Energy Agency projects the number of vehicles worldwide will reach 1.7 billion by 2035, driven mainly by rapid growth in China and India.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the number of vehicles on the world’s roads to rise from 870 million in 2012 to 1.7 billion by 2035, with developing markets accounting for the bulk of the increase. The projection comes from the agency’s comprehensive report on world energy trends, which highlights the scale of motorisation underway in Asia.
China and India drive global growth
China’s transformation is central to the IEA’s forecast. The country, which became the world’s largest auto market in 2009, saw car ownership climb from 4 per 1,000 people in 2000 to 40 per 1,000 in 2010. The IEA expects this figure to reach 310 per 1,000 by 2035. That would take China’s vehicle fleet from 60 million to more than 400 million in just over two decades.
India is also set for rapid expansion. The IEA estimates India’s car parc could grow from 14 million in 2011 to about 160 million by 2035, reflecting both rising incomes and urbanisation. This projection aligns with other studies suggesting India will become the world’s third-largest automotive market by 2020. For more on India’s growth, see JD Power Study Predicts India Will Overtake Japan as World’s Third Largest Car Market by 2020.
Infrastructure and energy implications
The IEA report notes that the expansion of the global vehicle fleet will require substantial investment in infrastructure. Over the past decade, the length of paved lanes worldwide increased by 30 percent to 28 million miles. The agency projects a further 10 million miles will be added by 2035, at a cost of around $20 trillion. This scale of investment will place additional pressure on resources and urban planning, particularly in fast-growing cities.
Slow adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles
Despite the surge in total vehicle numbers, the IEA expects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for only 4 percent of sales by 2035. Hybrids are projected to fare better, making up more than 20 percent of sales. This modest uptake suggests that the vast majority of vehicles added to the global fleet will continue to rely on conventional internal combustion engines well into the next two decades. For context on fuel economy progress, see Global fuel economy progress falling short of climate goals.
What it means for emissions and policy
The projected doubling of the global vehicle fleet raises questions about emissions, energy demand and urban congestion. While hybrid and electric vehicles are expected to grow their share, the IEA’s figures indicate that petrol and diesel models will remain dominant through 2035. Policymakers in both developed and developing countries face the challenge of balancing mobility, economic growth and environmental objectives as car ownership expands.
