US New Car Sales Forecast to Jump 18% in June, Led by Toyota and Honda
Analysts expect US new car sales to reach 1.2 million units in June 2012, up 18% year-on-year, as Toyota and Honda regain ground after last year’s supply disruptions.
The year-on-year jump is partly attributed to the recovery of Japanese brands, especially Toyota and Honda, which were hit hard by the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan and subsequent flooding in Thailand. Both companies have restored production and are now regaining market share, driven by strong demand for recent redesigns such as the Toyota Camry, Corolla and Prius. Honda has also benefited from improved supply and renewed interest in its main line-up. These developments have enabled Japanese manufacturers to post some of the strongest sales gains among major automakers this June.
Overview of June 2012 US New Car Sales Forecast
| Forecasted sales (units) | Year-on-year increase | Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) | Month-on-month change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2 million | 18% | 13.6 million | -6.9% |
Key Drivers Behind the Growth
- Toyota Camry, Corolla and Prius remain top sellers in June 2012
- Honda's main models also post improved sales
- Japanese brands reclaiming share lost during 2011 supply disruptions
Toyota is forecast to achieve robust retail sales in June while reducing incentive spending, as buyers continue to favour its core models. Honda’s recovery has been marked by strong demand for its updated vehicles, allowing it to regain ground lost during last year’s disruptions. These trends have led to a shift in market share, with Japanese brands outperforming some rivals who were less affected by the 2011 events.
Month-on-Month Decline Despite Annual Growth
Although the June total marks a sharp improvement over 2011, it is expected to be down 6.9% from May’s sales. Analysts at TrueCar project a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) of 13.6 million units for June, compared to 13.8 million in May and 11.5 million a year ago. This suggests that, while the market is recovering on an annual basis, there is some short-term softening compared to the previous month. Still, June 2012’s SAAR is the highest for the month since 2007, indicating a return to pre-recession volumes for the US market.
- Highest June SAAR since 2007, signalling a return to pre-recession sales volumes.
Ford Motor Company has taken a more cautious stance, with North American President Mark Fields stating that the company expects June sales to be roughly in line with May’s results. Ford’s internal forecast puts the industry’s annualised rate at around 13 million units, reflecting continued uncertainty in the broader US economy. This contrasts with the more optimistic projections from other analysts, highlighting the mixed signals present in the market.
- Ford projects June sales flat with May
- Industry SAAR estimates range from 13 million (Ford) to 13.6 million (TrueCar)
Retail Sales and Market Share Trends
Retail sales are expected to climb 15.7% year-on-year, a figure that highlights the underlying demand for new vehicles even as total volumes dip from the previous month. The recovery of Japanese brands is the main driver of these gains, with Toyota and Honda both increasing their share at the expense of rivals. Despite the strong annual growth, the market remains sensitive to economic signals, and some automakers are bracing for potential volatility in the coming months.
Economic Context and Consumer Confidence
Despite positive sales trends, consumer confidence has reportedly softened in June. This could weigh on showroom traffic and future sales, as broader economic signals continue to influence buyer behaviour. The automotive sector’s recovery is closely tied to economic conditions, and any further weakening in consumer sentiment could slow momentum in the second half of the year.
For those tracking industry performance, the June sales figures provide evidence of resilience among automakers, particularly those that have managed to overcome significant supply chain challenges. However, the outlook remains mixed, with some caution warranted as the US economy continues to send conflicting signals.
Related Reports and Broader Trends
- US: Consumer confidence down in June
- US Auto Sales up 30% in May despite slow economy
- US Auto Sales may hit 1.3 million in June, Forecast
- US Auto Sale: Industrywide sales rose just 2.3% in April
- West European Car Sales fell by 9.2%
- West Europe: New car sales down 1.3% in October
The June 2012 forecast for US new car sales highlights the ongoing recovery in the automotive industry, led by Japanese manufacturers regaining their footing after last year’s disruptions. While annual growth is robust, the market’s sensitivity to economic changes and month-to-month fluctuations remains a key theme for industry observers.
