US March Auto Sales Face Rare Year-on-Year Decline
Analysts forecast a possible year-on-year drop in US car sales for March 2015, with weather and strong prior results cited as key factors.
US auto sales for March 2015 are expected to show a rare year-on-year decline, breaking one of the longest streaks of monthly gains since the financial crisis. Final figures will depend on end-of-month deliveries, but several forecasters have predicted a small drop compared to March 2014.
The potential decline would be only the sixth monthly year-on-year drop since 2009, highlighting the strength and consistency of the recovery that followed the recession. March 2014 provided a high benchmark for comparison, making it difficult for this year’s figures to show further growth, especially with much of the country still affected by late winter weather.
Forecasts point to marginal shifts
TrueCar has projected a 0.8% fall in March sales, while Kelley Blue Book expects a more modest 0.3% dip. LMC Automotive remains slightly more optimistic, predicting a 0.3% increase. Barclays Capital issued the most pessimistic forecast, suggesting a 1.6% drop, but noted that strong sales in the final week could still offset the decline.
Despite the possible setback, the overall US market remains on track to reach the 17 million unit mark for 2015, a level not seen since before the recession. The performance of March is not expected to alter full-year forecasts, with most analysts describing the dip as a pause rather than a reversal. The last time US auto sales posted a year-on-year monthly decline was in February 2014.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles continues growth streak
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) is expected to extend its run of monthly sales increases to five consecutive years, even if the margin is narrow. FCA’s resilience stands out in a market where other manufacturers may see flat or negative results for the month. The group’s performance is being closely watched as an indicator of consumer demand for trucks and SUVs, segments where FCA has been particularly strong.
Weather and strong 2014 results weigh on March
Analysts have pointed to lingering winter conditions across much of the United States as a factor dampening showroom traffic and deliveries. March 2014 was an unusually strong month, making this year’s comparison tougher. The muted performance in March follows a similar trend seen in Canada, where sales inched up by just 0.2% amid harsh weather conditions. For more on the Canadian market, see Canada’s March Auto Sales Inch Up Just 0.2% Amid Harsh Weather.
While a single month’s dip is not expected to derail the US market’s momentum, manufacturers and dealers are watching closely for any signs that consumer demand is cooling after years of steady growth.
