Analysts Predict Over 15 Million US New Car Sales in 2013
Industry forecasts point to US new vehicle sales reaching at least 15 million units in 2013, driven by pent-up demand, credit availability and a wave of new models.
US new car sales in 2013 are expected to exceed 15 million units, with some forecasts reaching as high as 15.4 million. This marks a sharp increase from the 14.4 million vehicles sold in 2012, reflecting growing consumer confidence and a rebound in demand after several years of subdued results.
The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) set its 2013 forecast at over 15.4 million new vehicles, according to chief economist Paul Taylor. Other analysts, including Polk and Kelley Blue Book, put their estimates in the 15.0 to 15.4 million range. Edmunds also expects sales to cross the 15 million mark. These projections are based on industry trends, consumer data, and macroeconomic indicators.
Why analysts expect a surge in 2013
Several factors are behind the bullish outlook. The average age of vehicles on US roads reached record highs after the recession, at over 11 years, creating pent-up replacement demand. Many consumers postponed purchases during the downturn and are now returning to showrooms. This replacement cycle is expected to add hundreds of thousands of buyers in 2013.
Credit conditions are also more favourable. Interest rates for auto loans remain low and banks have loosened lending standards compared to the post-crisis years. Even subprime borrowers are finding it easier to secure financing. This wider access to credit is expected to support higher sales volumes.
Product launches play a major role. Automakers are set to introduce around 40 to 50 new or significantly refreshed models in 2013, roughly double the number seen in 2012. These include key launches in segments such as full-size pickups and SUVs, which are particularly important for the US market. More choice, improved fuel efficiency and updated designs are all cited as factors drawing buyers back to dealerships.
Economic recovery and consumer confidence
Broader economic trends are helping as well. Unemployment rates are falling and home values are recovering in most states, both of which support stronger consumer confidence. As the housing market improves, demand for pickups and other work vehicles is expected to rise, with some analysts calling 2013 “the year of the truck”.
A shortage of used vehicles, a legacy of the recession, is also pushing some buyers towards new cars. With fewer late-model used cars available and prices for used stock remaining high, the gap between new and used has narrowed, making new vehicles more attractive for some buyers.
What it means for manufacturers and dealers
If these forecasts are realised, 2013 will be the strongest year for US new car sales since before the financial crisis. Manufacturers with fresh product lines stand to benefit most, while dealers can expect increased showroom traffic and stronger trade-in values. The wave of lease returns from contracts signed in 2010 and 2011 is also expected to add to new vehicle demand.
While the US economy is still growing slowly, the auto sector is set to outpace it in 2013. Analysts remain cautious about the possibility of external shocks, but the consensus is that the ingredients for a strong sales year are in place.
For a broader view on global car sales forecasts for 2013, seeGlobal Car Sales Forecast to Hit Record 71 Million in 2013.
