Global Car Sales Forecast to Hit Record 71 Million in 2013
Industry analysts expect worldwide car sales to reach 71 million units in 2013, with Toyota, GM and Volkswagen locked in a close race for the top spot.
Global car sales are on track to reach a record 71 million units in 2013, according to a forecast by the Center of Automotive Management (CAM). The projection, based on data from the first three quarters of the year, points to a 3.5% increase over 2012 despite continued weakness in the European market.
The forecast highlights a three-way contest at the top of the industry, with Toyota, General Motors and Volkswagen all vying for the title of world’s largest carmaker. CAM’s analysis suggests Toyota will finish the year slightly ahead, with estimated sales of 9.75 million vehicles. GM is projected to follow closely at 9.70 million, while Volkswagen is expected to remain in third place with around 9.6 million vehicles sold.
Volkswagen’s position reflects ongoing challenges in Europe and weaker performance in the United States. The European market has been a drag on overall growth for several manufacturers, offset by stronger results in other regions. Even so, the global market is set to expand for the year, driven by demand outside Europe.
Toyota, GM and Volkswagen: Neck-and-neck in 2013
Toyota’s narrow lead over GM and Volkswagen is notable given the volatility in key markets. The margin between the top two is forecast to be just 50,000 units for the full year. While Volkswagen lags slightly behind, the group’s global ambitions remain undiminished. The forecast notes that all three manufacturers could surpass the 10 million unit mark in 2014 if current trends continue, a milestone Volkswagen had previously targeted for 2018.
The study draws on automakers’ reported figures for the first three quarters of 2013. While the final tally will depend on fourth-quarter performance, the year is already shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory for the world’s largest carmakers. The tight race at the top also reflects broader shifts in the global market, with Asia and North America providing much of the momentum as Europe continues to struggle.
Global growth offsets European slump
Despite the record forecast, the picture is not uniform across all regions. European sales remain subdued, with some markets experiencing sharp declines. This has impacted the global strategies of manufacturers with a strong European presence, such as Volkswagen. In contrast, gains in markets like China and the United States have helped offset the downturn in Europe. For more on regional trends, seeRussian Car Sales Forecast to Stall in 2013 After Record Year
Looking ahead, CAM expects global sales growth to slow slightly in 2014, with a projected increase of around 3% to 73 million units. If realised, this would mark another record and could see all three leading manufacturers break the 10 million unit barrier for the first time.
